View Full Version : Will It Be Number 1?
Jek Porky 2002
03-03-2002, 10:31 AM
Do you think that Attack Of The Clones will be the number one selling film of 2002.
I really hate to say this but, I don't think it will, it'll probably be about the second or third biggest seller of the year, I mean there's another Harry Potter (Which is just pure hipe and I don't feel a particularly good movie) another Lord Of The Rings and stuff like Scooby Doo and Spider Man (a long shot but still a potential threat).
So what do you think?
03-03-2002, 11:16 AM
I think AOTC will pull in between $275 and $325 million domestically.
Harry Potter will be a 'burn out' movie. Insanely high grosses the first week and then massive drop offs. It will be lucky to hit $200 million.
SpiderMan will have two and half weeks to grab as much business as possible before AOTC steals it's thunder. $160 million if it's an excellent film. Much less if it tanks.
Scooby Doo? Minority Report? MIIB? Solid $100+ million movies, but nothing more.
LOTR is AOTC's only real competition, because like this year, LOTR has smooth sailing through the Hollywood dumping ground that is January and February. Both movies are sequels (which generally earl less than the original) but AOTC gets released at the beginning of the Summer rush and is up against every other blockbuster coming out. LOTR will be up against the Rollerballs of 2003, which ensures smooth sailing, a long theatrical release run, and beaucoup $$. I think it will be close. Plus LOTR has the Oscar aura around it. People want to see what happens next. AOTC has the Phantom Menace aura around it. Poor bast...um..movie.
Jek Porky 2002
03-03-2002, 12:56 PM
After reading all that it'll be difficult to tell who wins out of AOTC and LOTR:TTT, Star Wars may have the slight advantage because if Lord O' The Rings is released in mid December it will only have two to three weeks and therefore the majority of the profits will be taken in 2003 and Star Wars might catch it due to release times.
03-03-2002, 01:32 PM
Will it be #1? That's up in the air. I'd like to say "yes" but I don't think it matters anymore...
If the movies good, then that will be good enough for me, just so everyone will stop griping :p ;) :D
03-03-2002, 01:39 PM
I've been more entertained by small-budget, obscure, limited-release films than I have big-budget blockbuster-wannabes. And I don't get a cut of the profits, so why should I concern myself?
03-03-2002, 04:46 PM
It's quite obvious that Episode II will be much better than Episode I, I wouldn't be suprised if Episode II helped SW reclaim it's fame that kinda got lost in Episode 1. :cool:
Jek Porky 2002
03-03-2002, 06:03 PM
Judging by the story line it will be good, but that all depends on weather they put silly one liners in that are just not funny.
03-03-2002, 07:52 PM
I just read an article with Pete Jackson and he said he highly doubts the next film will be ready in time for this Christmas. He stated the effects shors are only about 35% and they have a LONG way to go before they are done. He is hoping the studio will allow him to delay the release until Summer 2003. If this does happen, it will only leave Harry Potter and MIIB as the two contenders. I don't think that Scooby Doo or Spiderman will have the draw that some fans are thinking they will have. I like them both, but I think that I will wait for Doo to show up at the vidstore before I see it. I dunno... it's lost a bit of its gloss for me. If it had shown up about 5 years ago... maybe. Spiderman... I'd put on par with the X-Men film. It's got the audience, but it is more limited to people who follow the comics and then those who follow the people who follow the comics. I don't believe that Spiderman has the mass market appeal or (don't hit me) recognition as, say, Superman did.
03-03-2002, 08:58 PM
We could use a link...
03-03-2002, 10:29 PM
If LOTR: The Two Towers doesn't make it until summer 2003, then AOTC will be the largest grossing movie of this year. If the movie is released on schedule in December, then AOTC will probably be pushed to #2.
03-04-2002, 12:03 AM
In terms of year's highest grossing film, I think AOTC will probably be number 1. TTT is released in December, giving it less than a month to generate the same numbers that AOTC did in 6+ months. There is no contest here, really.
Now, as to say which film is more anticipated or which film will be better, that's a completely different subject....
03-04-2002, 01:58 AM
I agree with Rollo. Those seems to be pretty close to my guess' (sp?) as well. All except for Scooby Doo. I don't think this film has what it takes to make it into the $100+ million mark. The horrible actors they have just turn me away from this movie. I'll wait to see it on video. I think Harry Potter will make a little bit more than $200 million. The first one has even surpassed TPM's international sales and will surely pass it in the worldwide sales sometime soon. I think the sequel will have has just as much of an impact as the first movie. AOTC will probably be the highest grossing film of the year. The only thing hurting it is TPM's horrible shadow looming over it. I'd like to see Spiderman hit around $200 million, but Rollos estimate sounds right to me seeing as X-Men pulled in $151 million and Spiderman basically has the same fan base. MIB:II will reach over $100 million, but won't be able to compete with the really high stuff. What about Austin Powers 3. No one mentioned that film. I'd say Austin Powers 3 will bring in around $125 million. Probably more due to its large fan base.
03-04-2002, 06:05 AM
Well, with AOTC being a vast improvement of TPM already, I have confidence that it will do much better than E1, and hopefully even beat Titanic's record, in which it shall be invicibile. :D
03-04-2002, 09:45 AM
Hasn't that joke run itself into the ground yet? I didn't like the first one and I didn't even bother with the second one. Guess what my take on the third one is...?
03-04-2002, 10:03 AM
Two Towers not until 2003? :mad: I doubt NewLine will let him get away with messing with their marketing plans like that.
Star Wars may have the slight advantage because if Lord O' The Rings is released in mid December it will only have two to three weeks and therefore the majority of the profits will be taken in 2003 and Star Wars might catch it due to release times.
Movie takes are based on initial release date, so any money TTT makes is still considered a 2002 release, even if it makes some of it in 2003.
For example, Titanic was released in '97 so it was the highest grossing movie of '97. It made more money than both Armagedoon and Saving Private Ryan in '98, but those two films were considered the highest grossers of '98. (I think SPR edged out Armageddon with it's Oscar rerelease in '99, but it still counted as the highest grosser of '98).
It's quite obvious that Episode II will be much better than Episode I, I wouldn't be suprised if Episode II helped SW reclaim it's fame that kinda got lost in Episode 1.
As far as AOTC wiping away the stigma of TPM, the regular movie goer is not an SW internet junkie that knows AOTC will blow the socks of TPM in terms of story. They just know the last SW was not very good and are a little reluctant to go see another one. That will affect it's grosses.
Rollos estimate sounds right to me seeing as X-Men pulled in $151 million and Spiderman basically has the same fan base. I actually had $150 mil for Spidey and bumped it up.:D Cost of inflation I guess.
03-04-2002, 12:21 PM
I think that LOTR: TTT will be released on time. We have basically a year until it is released. Almost a year for them to work on it and since all the movies were shot at the same time, it isn't like they have to continue filming. All they have to worry about are special effect shots, music, editing and such. It can't possibly take that long to the special effects. It isn't like LOTR has as much CGI stuff as AOTC.
03-04-2002, 02:48 PM
Personally I think AOTC will be number 1 in 2002 fairly easily with the main competition coming from Spiderman. Basically it depends on how well the Spidey flick is. I hear a lot of people saying they really want to see Spiderman based on the preview. Which I thought was allright but not "Oh Wow! I gotta see Spiderman! That looks so awesome!" I did not get that fealing from it. I do want to see it no matter what because hey it's Spiderman for Christ's sake!
I don't think AOTC will make as much as TPM did. The Twin Towers won't have time to catch AOTC and it won't do as well LOTR:FOTR either.
Star Wars just has way too much of a fan base and general public interest behind it. As bad as you may think TPM was people will still want to see AOTC. No matter how "bad" the title is. People will want to see the clones attack and they want to see how Darth Vader came to be.
03-04-2002, 03:40 PM
Personally I would love to see AOTC bring in alot and be #1 this year, but if it doesnt I will not lose any sleep over it.
It is Star Wars, which I love, therefore it is good enough for me.
The magic and excitement for me is still there, so to me it is #1.
And as far as Spiderman goes, it looks like a cool movie, but lets be honest folks, Spidey is noooo Superman....
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