The Star Wars Market, can it hold out?

[LusiferSam]

I've always viewed a price guide (any kind of price) as a kind of thermometer. It's a rough estimation of the price your going to pay. Exact? No, but you'll be in the ballpark. But I as I said any number of times, the true value of an item is what you're willing to pay.

[jrosen]

Originally posted by tjovonovich
:Its nothing more than a auction house. I can't stress that enough. You ever been to real auction?

The reserve price I may not have been clear on, but I've seen plenty of loose and carded figures "reserved priced" above and beyond your foolish toy price mags.

When you reference beanies and pokemon...those two collectables are not even in the same catagory as vintage star wars. A) they are too new. B) Star wars toys have been around quite a bit longer and there has been a demand even after the heyday was over. C) The vintage star wars market is for real collectors, not fly by night soccer moms and kids. D) Star Wars is going through its second phase or wind. Something we will won't see with pokeman and beanies until 20 years later, but I doubt we will. Both of your examples are nothing more than a monsterous fad and one that was spun out of control due to our societies current state of quick profit thinking and gotta have it at any price demand. Two very bad comparisons. That would be like me compairing tin toys and bisque dolls to star wars or cabbage patch kids. Two totally different fields.

I don't care about pop-culture or professional ideals on ebay or what's written in some current econ books. Have you ever noticed that most time econ prediction, and econ outlooks never come to be? That's because they are nothing more that a guess and prediction...just like some price guides. Ebay hasn't been around long enough to determine the long term effects on auctioned goods, vs. traded goods.

As a seller and buyer myself, I will stick to what is listed in the price guides, as will my connections that sell and buy collections at toy shows and comic shops.

I am quite content to be fair and adjust my prices by something that is an average from others in the toy market and field. I'll gladly let everyone on ebay slit their own throats and pay top dollar for junk when I know I can get the same item or better much less through normal, accepted, means in the toy business.

Granted Lee's claims to be nothing more than a reference and has a disclaimer, but at least its a printed estimate from toy shows, not acutions, or constantly escallating and declining prices on a website. Its taken from people who buy and sell toys for a living at shops and toy shows, not Mr. streetsweeper trying to get triple for something he has no understanding in or care in.

A fool and his money are soon parted...and ebay is living proof of that. I've been in the toy trade since I was little and still am to a degree, the star wars demand will fall off again and once again it will fall back into the collectors world (antique toy shows, and toy shows) and the vintage and new items will be sold and bought by some guides standards once all the auctions fall or disapear from ebay.

As I read your quote, I just have to ask...Have you ever took a macroeconomics course in college? Further, did you pass it? I mean come on. If people are setting prices at triple their value then nobody should buy it. That's common sense. Believe what you want and set your prices lower to meet your standard of what it's worth. It's not my money that you are wasting by offering an item below it's market value.

Firms that do business with brick and mortar collector shops do look into what the value of an item is. If they tried to sell something for more then what it can be purchased on eBay, then nobody will buy it. If they try to sell something that is lower then the cost of eBay, then their profits will go down.

[Vortex]

Originally posted by jrosen
As I read your quote, I just have to ask...Have you ever took a macroeconomics course in college? Further, did you pass it?

Yes, both Macro and Micro and for the record I got A's in both classes. Also took stats and Business Calc and got B+'s in those classes from the University of Minnesota if you want to compare degrees. Majored in Architecture w/ a minor in Cultural Studies and Comparitive Literature. Hmmm...oh yea deans list 2 Semesters, and finished college in 4.25 years. Class of 98 if you must know.

I ask you if you are just staring to take those classes, since you seem to have a blind faith in what you read in those econ books...and if so I do have some old econ books myself that deal with internet business. One views business on the internet as "never going to happen" and the other deals with the internet as the "death of shopping malls and retail stores"...hmmm seems to me even econ professionals can't get it right and make good predictions.

Originally posted by jrosen
I mean come on. If people are setting prices at triple their value then nobody should buy it. That's common sense.

Ahhh that's the fundament ideal isn't it...but on ebay it doesn't hold true now does it. You have limited supplies and a wild demand now don't you? Mix that in with a limited specailzed market (us as collectors and profiteers) and things just don't go according to projected supply and demand now do they. Also with the vintage market there's such a range of bad and good, you can't apply a "typical" approach to it.

Example: I was bidding on day on a Transformers gen. 1 figure...jetfire...he was incomplete, worn, slightly abused, but hey I have buyers myself and might look good in my collection if they pass it up. Bidding started low, then with a day to go the price was up over 150 dollars. By close the price tag was near 200. Granted its not vintage star wars, but it helps point out the fact that people are paying well over any sane amount for damaged incomplete goods. On the other hand, I've seen vintage carded in good condition go for well below for what I would have paid, and they got a good deal. But more often than not, I see inflated prices.

Another thing I would like to toss into your econ machine is a shill.
You ever heard of one? Well with auctions in general you sometimes have a plant that working with the seller that intentionally boost the bidding price of an item to extreme levels just to test the waters and fleece the unspecting bidder. Now I ask you, if there is a shill at an auction and the price is intentionally boosted due to this, should this be a fair means to judge the going rate for some unspecified item? And with Ebay there's no way you or anyone can guarentee that there isn't a shill out there. All the seller needs in a differnt IP address computer and the seller, or a partner, can seek out max bids and increase bidding in their favor deliberatly pushing any supply and demand curve out of its normal state. If some one wants to buy a loose ewok for 3 dollars on a bid, but puts his max bid at 9, and no one bids on it for a while, the guy thinks he's getting a good deal at its lowest price. Well the shill jumps in and bids 6 with no intention of really buying the item, and then ebay bumps your bid to 8 since it hasn't hit your max price yet. The shill might try it again, might not, but they have just taken you for 5 more dollars when in fact the initial demand was only there at 3. So I ask again...is this fair or a good way to judge market value?

Originally posted by jrosen
Believe what you want and set your prices lower to meet your standard of what it's worth. It's not my money that you are wasting by offering an item below it's market value.

Thank you I will stick my accepted standards and not fleece my fellow collectors. I've been buying and selling for quite a few years not, and max profit margin isn't my #1 concern. Besides market value varies so much you will never hit max market value anyways.

Besides I have yet to waste my money as you call it. Just because I don't sell at inflated rates doesn't mean I'm wasting my money. For the record, all of my items were bought well below any ebay price tag and below lee's guides averages. And from my econ classes I do know that I sell for more...and thank you. Have you passed that test yet in your course?

Originally posted by jrosen
Firms that do business with brick and mortar collector shops do look into what the value of an item is. If they tried to sell something for more then what it can be purchased on eBay, then nobody will buy it. If they try to sell something that is lower then the cost of eBay, then their profits will go down.

Yea but at the same time, comic shops, toy dealers, etc. buy collections well below the listed price, sometimes only offer half its listed price or 3/4 of its listed price and turn around and resell it near its max price depending on its grade or quality. And to them any profit on those items is a good profit since its not their bread and butter and they know they will never get max market value for an item or buy it from some one at its lowest price. Sort of like the stock market.

You try and get max price for your good and keep thinking you're getting deals on ebay and I'll keep putting black number in my log books of sales. I have yet to use a red pen to denote a loss.

So let me ask you this, since you ask about my schooling. You ever sit at a toy show and sell? Do you deal with comic shop owners and do you know your value of your items you buying or selling? Do you deal and haggle or just point to your price tag. Or are you the type to reply with "How much you got" after being asked "how much"?

[jrosen]

This is getting old. You must be an Arizona State Grad.

On your shill bidding strategy. If you bid 9, you value it at 9. No matter what happens. It's worth 9 to you. Now if someone bid the auction up past 9 then you don't buy it. If your value was really 3, but you bid 9, then you are fault for winning the auction.

Further, how many auctions do you believe a shill was used. I would say less then 1%. A majority of the sellers on eBay sell for a living. They would not risk losing their livilihood, and a jail sentence, for fraud.

The fact that you don't want to "fleece" your customers is meaningless. All you are doing is selling your product at a too low of a price. The fact that you don't want to maximize your profit is crazy. Why would you sell something in the first place? Send the item to me, I'll give you a dollar.

I don't sit with comic book guys. I don't sit at toy shows. I do economic regressions dealing with supply and demand. Mainly cost regression analysis. So yes, I research eBay. And no, I am not in the market myself. Conflict of interest.

[Vortex]

Originally posted by jrosen
This is getting old. You must be an Arizona State Grad.

Its apparent you don't know how to read either.

Yes its getting old, you just stick to auction house ebay and it's full time sellers, and most important feedback ratings, and I'll doing my thing.

I make enough money as a profession where the added sales are just extra pockey money. I'll gladly sell for 10-30 dollars less if it means I keep valued constant clients and 10 bucks is a good marketing price by world of mouth in the industry if it means more clients. Its the old homage about sometimes you need to spend money to make money. I'll take a little less for more business later.

Greed is an ugly thing. Turns you into a monster when you start to focus on the size of your wallet, and it only hurts you in the long run.

" The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any -price,
peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of
soft living, and the get rich-quick theory of life. What counts in the great battle of life is not wealth, beauty or even intelligence, but
character, courage perseverance and self-reliance. "

President Teddy Roosevelt

Thanks for the debate, and see ya later. Hope you finally learn to read and it might help when looking at charts and graphs.

[Kidhuman]

Originally posted by jrosen
Further, how many auctions do you believe a shill was used. I would say less then 1%. A majority of the sellers on eBay sell for a living. They would not risk losing their livilihood, and a jail sentence, for fraud.

I would actually say more around 10%. I have seen auctions jump up out of nowhere with no rhyme or reason to it. People I know have done it with stuff they were selling. It wasn't toys, but they were doing it none the less. Ebay is a crap shoot. You might get lucky with some stuff and very unlucky with others. I was selling some comics about a year ago. There was a lot of Spiderman comics I had for sale, abut 120 of them. About 2 days before it ended, I looked at the price befor eI went to sleep. It was at 40 dollars. I thought well it could possibly get up to 100 by the end of the auction. The next morning it was over 200 dollars. People will pay anything if they want something bad enough. ANd there is always those 10%, yes 10% of the people who will have friends raise the price of an auction.

[Bel-Cam Jos]

Keep your personal attacks out of this, people. Address the issue, not the person.

No, not everyone understands economics, and common sense does not appear to exist much anymore. The old adage that "something is only worth as much as someone else is willing to pay for it" is true. My Star Wars collection is "worth" nothing, because I'm not looking to sell it. However, if someone offered me $5 for it, in their minds, that's its value. Is it worth more? Probably. Common sense would say that. What're you gonna do...

Whew! Who'd have thought a discussion on boring, old econ would bring Forumites to violence! Well, cartoon violence...

[Banky]

My Star Wars collection is "worth" nothing, because I'm not looking to sell it.

Can you really say that? I don't want to sell my collection but if some rich fool called me up and said "I dont want to look around, I'll give you $5million right now for all you got" I would SELL IT! Its 5 Million! I know, that would never happen. But you have to admit you would sell itfor a right price. That right price cause he 'out of the ball park' of the asking price. Maybe $5 million is to small for you. What if he said $100, or $500 million. I am sure if he keep going up you would crack. We all have a price we would take. And why not! With 5million you can get a better collection! So what's the lowest you would take? What if he said 100 thousand, or 50 thousand. Find that lowest number and then you know what your collection with worth.
Please dont tell me, "I wouldn't take 5 million or 100million! I love my collection to much" cause no one can believe that.

[Kidhuman]

I know for one I would sell my collection for 100,00 and go by a whole new collection. It all depends on the right price. Everyone has their price, it all depends on if someone wants to give it to you.

[Exhaust Port]

Example: I was bidding on day on a Transformers gen. 1 figure...jetfire...he was incomplete, worn, slightly abused, but hey I have buyers myself and might look good in my collection if they pass it up. Bidding started low, then with a day to go the price was up over 150 dollars. By close the price tag was near 200. Granted its not vintage star wars, but it helps point out the fact that people are paying well over any sane amount for damaged incomplete goods. On the other hand, I've seen vintage carded in good condition go for well below for what I would have paid, and they got a good deal. But more often than not, I see inflated prices.

Jetfire, of all the toys to pick, is not a good benchmark to judge future Star Wars interest. Jetfire is that rare breed of a perfect cross-over toy, it's both a hugh draw to Transformer fans and even more so to the Macross/Robotech fans. Original Bandai Valkyries (and Jetfire can be considered one of them) have always brought in extremely high prices. First they had to be imported which SW toys aren't. We can go down to the local toy store and buy these. Heck, now we can buy a full case of them online if we want. Jetfire was the only domestic available Macross toy. MIB Valkyries have gone for over $1000 in some cases. When you consider the possiblities, buying a beat up Jetfire for $200 is a steal.

Star Wars has very little to do with a lot of the successful aftermarket toys such as Macross and vintage GI Joe. Star Wars has been considered a "collectible" since almost day one, meaning that a lot of people have bought their toys with the expectation that it will be a collectible. Look at these boards. How many people here have a sizable collection of SW toys both in and out of the box? Plus, look at the numbers of toys made? Tens of thousands of a each figure or other toy. Then there are those rare cases of limited figures but who bought those? Collectors. This means that they'll be pampered and protected so their numbers will probably not get much smaller.

Any inflated prices we see now can't last forever. The fan/collector base can only get smaller with time. This will lead to a lot of people selling what they have hoping to recoup their investment flooding the market. Those that stay in it will most likely have what they want already or be able to buy remaining pieces from the exiting SW collector.

Ten years after the last movie who will be left? Not much will be made regarding SW. A lot more fans will stop collecting that those that will start. Prices will fall because of 2 reasons: 1. Less collectors means less demand. 2. The fact that so many people collected means a lot of collectible grade toys.

If you want collectibles that can weather the toy market and time you have to find a genre that carries over for generations and is timeless. Baseball cards and Comics. There has will always be baseball and comic heros never have to die. Movies come and go and so do the interest in their toys.