The Star Wars Market, can it hold out?

[stillakid]

I have a question that perhaps someone here can answer: When Hasbro releases a new version (or just the old sculpt in a new box) of a vehicle that was originally part of the Kenner line (ie, Shuttle, AT AT, Skiff, etc), does the Vintage price typically hold steady or has it dropped upon the new release?

Just like Barada, I'm not in it for the value...I just want the toys. So when I paid $150 to a comic book shop guy a few years back for a vintage AT AT, it was worth it to me...at the time. Had I known that a couple years later a similar version of the toy would be released, I most likely wouldn't have bought the vintage despite the relatively minor alterations.

But, with items like the Skiff and the A Wing, not in a million years would I pay anyone some inflated price for the vintage version when pretty much the exact same thing can be had for around $20 or so.

The figures are different in that most of the sculpts are radically different from the vintage models, although, again, something like Amanaman is close enough to the original that the inflated vintage value doesn't seem to make such a purchase worth it.

[Kidhuman]

I guess the rarity of a vintage Amanaman is what makes the value of it go up. Since it was HTF, people have upped the price of it when the new lines started coming out. I never had one and was esctatic when the POTJ version came out. It was a long wait for me to get this figure. I had hunted for him when I was a kid and never found him. I, like you will not pay an inflated price for an original if there is anew one out. I like you again, never had an AT-AT as a kid, so when the new one came out, I jumped on it(Well actually got it on clearance at TRU a few months after it came out for like 30 dollars as opposed to 70). If something is high priced I tend to pass on it to get alot more of the little things first and then I will go back and buy the larger, more expensive things(ie. playsets and vehicles) unless it is something I always wanted. The same thing when SLave1 was released in AOTC, I went and got one because I never had one as a kid.

So I guess to answer your original question if a re-release of a vintage figure in the new lines makes a price go down I would say no. Those were put out back then, and now are considered vintage. They will never make a lightsaber that slides out of the arm again.(although I really like the feature.) Those will IMO, always have more value than a newer figure of the same thing.

[Vortex]

Well leaving jetfire aside...since he's a crossover. I can use the same example for any of the tapes...ravage, rumble, etc. Any of the Prediking robots, dinobots, and some of the cars and jets. There are times when damaged goods fetch a high price on ebay then boxed mint items do, depending on when and how they show up for auction. It's sometimes rare, but it does happen. Another oddity was with electronic stratego. I wanted this item and I watched an auction for a while to see what was happening and what condition things were typically in. This one that I was watching was missing two bombs, damaged box, no instructions and had some major wear and tear. It was only one of two currently on ebay and other was missing almost everything and didn't work well. The bidding for the better of the items was over 60 dollars on the next to last day of bidding. Just before this auction was over a full, complete working game, with instructions, and good box shows up on auction. This one went for 35 dollars when it was all said and done and there weren't a lot of bids on it only a few from other auction even bothered to take a chance on this one. I'm sure everyone here has seen something similar...good stuff goes for less than damaged stuff. I do understand that when your looking for averages and typicals there are examples you toss out since they don't fit the normal mode of operation, but is there any way to actually find a "typical" on ebay?


As for baseball cards and comics...we could debate this all our lives. Those markets and demand have just as much with highs and lows as star wars...sometimes if not more.

I remember how hyped baseball cards were in late 80's and how it came crashing down like the beanie babies did in the early and mid 90's. The debates about Fleer vs Topps vs Upper Deck. I remember old men and kids in Target and toy shows buying boxes of unopened cards, sitting in the isles rubbing the backs and tops trying to use their "tricks" as to who or what was in a specific pack. I also remember that certain brands held a higher price over others, didn't matter who was on it, and the value of the cards was determined by looking at them through magnifying glasses for the slightest corner bend, tear, crease, gum mark etc. I remember how frantic that hobby was too and how people walked around shows and comic shops with that large topps purple bible under their arm for quick price reference. Now look at that hobby or collectable. It has a much smaller audience than it did a few years back. Granted there will always be specific cards worth big bucks, but the rest can go for pennies if they aren't a big name.

Same can be said with comics. There's only a few lines, a few issues that command big bucks, but the other titles are pretty dormant unless youre a hard core fan.

The whole collecting world is a large crap shoot. Sometimes you get lucky with a line or happen to be in it when its hot...other times you get get left holding the bag. It all depends what you're into.

[Exhaust Port]

I guess the point I was trying to make with comics and baseball cards is that both of those have an on going interest. Baseball teams will always get new players and those new players spur interest in future cards. Who will be the next Sammy Sosa? And that interest in future cards maintains an interest in past cards and stabilizes their value. If you're a fan of current and future Red Sox teams, most likely you'll be interested in past teams and puchase those player cards.

Star Wars has also been under the influence of it's own pop culture and the movies. Even between the OT and PT there was a constant level of interest as those that grew up with SW maintained their interest. We were at that age that doing so fit into our lives. Also the promise of the future movies helped maintain that interest.

Now that the SW movie releases are soon going to be over forever there will be a lot less fans sticking around after the fact. It was a good ride while it lasted. Also the average age of a SW fan doesn't leave a lot of fans in a position to maintain this type of hobby. In a decade a lot of people will have other responsibilities that will keep them from purchasing toys from a 10 year old movie series.

Pop culture collectibles very rarely do well in the long run as the pop runs out. Those that I know of that do succeed are still supported by modern interest. Coca Cola is a good example. If no one had ever drank a Coke or grew up with it do you think anyone would be buying the stuff?

[Vortex]

[QUOTE=Exhaust Port]

Now that the SW movie releases are soon going to be over forever there will be a lot less fans sticking around after the fact. It was a good ride while it lasted. Also the average age of a SW fan doesn't leave a lot of fans in a position to maintain this type of hobby. In a decade a lot of people will have other responsibilities that will keep them from purchasing toys from a 10 year old movie series.
QUOTE]



I bet a lot of folks were saying the same thing about us. When Star Wars popped back up, the bulk of us were in college. Who would have guess that a bunch of broke college kids would collect action figures and childrens play toys? Where were our priorities? With classes, professions on the line, love lives, heavy drinking and leading the wild life, who would have guessed that 20 years after the fact all these college kids and older kids would be so feaverish about the star wars toys again.

Who's to say the cycle might not return in 10-15 years? The movies are already a cult favorite and with parents and kids sharing the same hobby...who's to say it won't or can't come back? Granted there won't be another set of new movies, but who's to say they won't ever hit the big screen again?

Again, with baseball cards, star wars, coke items, transformers, junk in general, it all depends on what your into and how much you like something.

If we could guess the popularity of something and when it would come back or figure out the real demand, we would have made our millions in the stock market already.

[stillakid]

Star Wars has also been under the influence of it's own pop culture and the movies. Even between the OT and PT there was a constant level of interest as those that grew up with SW maintained their interest. We were at that age that doing so fit into our lives. Also the promise of the future movies helped maintain that interest.

Now that the SW movie releases are soon going to be over forever there will be a lot less fans sticking around after the fact. It was a good ride while it lasted. Also the average age of a SW fan doesn't leave a lot of fans in a position to maintain this type of hobby. In a decade a lot of people will have other responsibilities that will keep them from purchasing toys from a 10 year old movie series.

I think it's safe to assume that in a decade, the market will be entirely "vintage." Meaning, that within 12 to 24 months after Episode III vanishes from theatres (okay, maybe 36 months on the outside), Hasbro will shut it down. Just look at the retail reaction to the lull now. Imagine how little they'll care with no films to prod the customer base on.

The books have their audience, but certainly not enough to stimulate enough of a market to justify making toys. A cartoon series, like Clone Wars, might keep some interest alive, but even that has a limited shelf life. Look at the Smurfs.

So, I think that we'll see history repeat itself. As the new films wane into memory, fewer people will purchase the last toys out of the factory. Just like the POTF coin line, these last Star Wars toys will have more inherent value because of their rarity. Of course, as stated by many above, a thing is really only as valuable as a person is willing to pay, so even if, say, the Tonnika Sisters Two Pack (hypothetical) does finally wind up on shelfs in 2008 and only a relative handful of die-hard collectors buys it, who will be hanging around in the years after that to buy them secondhand at exhorbitant prices with no future movie to jumpstart interest?

[Exhaust Port]

I guess all we can do is enjoy it while it lasts.

[Kidhuman]

Thats all we can do EP, all we can do.

[LusiferSam]

I have a question that perhaps someone here can answer: When Hasbro releases a new version (or just the old sculpt in a new box) of a vehicle that was originally part of the Kenner line (ie, Shuttle, AT AT, Skiff, etc), does the Vintage price typically hold steady or has it dropped upon the new release?

My experience is the price does drop when Hasbro releases a new version of a classic vehicle. I saw it happen with the A-wing and Skiff, don't know about the Shuttle or AT-AT. Best example I have is the TIE Interceptor. Before the POTJ version I couldn't touch one min of $80. After, I got one for around $40. But this drop is not permanent. I've also seen prices start climbing again.