Predict the pegwarmers!

[bigbarada]

Seeing as how I was almost spot-on in predicting the pegwarmers for TAC wave 1 (I picked Artoo and Obi-Wan), I thought it might be fun to try to predict which figures from each wave will pegwarm the worst.

Wave 2: I'm thinking that Han is the only real candidate for pegwarming here. There's a possibility of Luke and the Rebel Guard showing a warming trend though. Ceremony Luke didn't exactly fly off the shelves in the POTF2 days and the Rebel Guard is just not that exciting of a figure, especially for kids.

Wave 3: Darth Vader of course, I think the demand for this guy has been filled and overfilled, then overfilled again just to be on the safe side. I'm also going to go with Luke again, I don't think there are that many diorama builders to compensate for what looks like a really poor figure.

Wave 4: Easy, Umpass Stay, C-3PO and Luke. Barada from the Saga2 line didn't just warm the pegs, he darn near boiled them. If the only gimmick for Threepio is some green "slime" paint, then I don't believe that will be enough for him to fly off the pegs (especially since the Endor Throne Threepio was something of a slow seller down here). Based on the prototypes, Luke doesn't look so good, so I think that will hurt his appeal.

Wave 5: I'm not sure about this one, if they are widely released like SOTE, then ALL of them, except for Concept Luke (seeing as how the C4 fiasco is going to artificially inflate demand). If they are more like the 1998 EU line, then I don't expect to see a single one on the pegs.

VTAC: Bossk of course, but that's good news for me. Hoth Han, almost for sure (based on the performance of the previous vintage-style Han figures). Maybe Leia, since none of the other Endor Rebel figures have really lept off the shelves either. Actually, now that I think about it, I've never really had trouble finding any of these vintage-style figures. I guess the $10 price tag is a big deterrent for kids.

There's too much speculation in the following waves for me to make any guesses right now. This is also assuming that none of my picks are short-packed.

[Battle Droid]

The C-3PO is from the Sail Barge with the removed eye according to Hasbro, and is coming with a new Salacious Crumb.

[El Chuxter]

I'm not sure I agree with you on Umpass-Stay. Barada was a repaint. This should be a new figure, or at least heavily retooled.

[Mad Slanted Powers]

Wave 3: Darth Vader of course, I think the demand for this guy has been filled and overfilled, then overfilled again just to be on the safe side. I'm also going to go with Luke again, I don't think there are that many diorama builders to compensate for what looks like a really poor figure.

The Wal-Mart here had all six pegs full of TSC. Most were Jerjerrod, Vader #38 or Greatest Hits Vader. Also several Emperor's, both TSC and Greatest Hits, and a few Leia Boushh. There was also one Chewie and one Rieekan.

Wave 5: I'm not sure about this one, if they are widely released like SOTE, then ALL of them, except for Concept Luke (seeing as how the C4 fiasco is going to artificially inflate demand). If they are more like the 1998 EU line, then I don't expect to see a single one on the pegs.

Is this concept Luke different from the C4 one? How will it inflate demand either way? I do agree that it probably won't pegwarm, though.

[jedi master sal]

Wave 1: REVENGE OF THE SITH
30-01: Darth Vader & 30th Anniversary Coin Album
30-03: Mustafar Lava Miner (Minor Pegwarmer, IMO)
30-04: R2-D2
30-05: Obi-Wan Kenobi
30-06: Mace Windu
30-08: Super Battle Droid (Minor Pegwarmer, IMO)
Wave 2: BATTLE OF YAVIN (Delayed from 2006)
30-11: Han Solo (Smuggler)
30-12: Luke Skywalker (Yavin Ceremony)
30-14: Biggs Darklighter (Rebel Pilot) (Minor Pegwarmer, IMO)
Wave 3: A NEW HOPE
30-18: Luke Skywalker (Minor Pegwarmer, IMO)
30-19: Jawa & LIN Droid (Minor Pegwarmer, IMO)
30-22: M'iiyoom Onith (Cantina Alien) (Minor Pegwarmer, IMO)
30-23: Elis Helrot (Cantina Alien) (Minor Pegwarmer, IMO)
Wave 4: RETURN OF THE JEDI
30-25: Luke Skywalker (Jedi Knight)
30-27: Umpass-Stay
30-29: Hermi Odle (Minor Pegwarmer, IMO)
30-30: C-3PO
Wave 5: EXPANDED UNIVERSE I beleive that most from this wave will pegwarm eventually. This is a very niche wave.
###: Anakin Skywalker with tattoos (Clone Wars)
###: Darth Malak (KOTOR)
###: Darth Revan - Fan's Choice Poll Winner (KOTOR)
###: Roron Corobb ("Momaw Nadon Jedi")
###: Qymaen jai Sheelal (pre-cyborg General Grievous)
###: Yoda & Kybuck (Clone Wars)
###: McQuarrie Concept Luke Skywalker
Wave 6: THE EMPIRE STRIKES BACK
###: 4-LOM
###: Lando Calrissian (Smuggler?) (Minor Pegwarmer, IMO)
Wave 7: RETURN OF THE JEDI
###: A-Wing Pilot (Tycho Celchu?)
###: Ewoks 2-pack
###: Spirit of Anakin Skywalker (Minor Pegwarmer, IMO)
###: R2-D2 (w/ Cargo net?)
Wave 8: ATTACK OF THE CLONES
###: Clone Trooper
###: Destroyer Droid (w/ Shield?) (Minor Pegwarmer, IMO, especially sicne you have to buy two to get one complete sheild)
###: Padmé Amidala (Fireside Gown?)
###: Jango Fett (Poncho?)
###: Voolvif Monn (Wolfman Jedi)

So there we go. A good many of these are going to peg warm to some degree or another. Other than the army builders and the McQuarrie figures, I just don't see how it's going to be hard to find the rest of these. Hence pegwarmers.

Granted when the wave first comes out they'll move like hotcakes, but once the initial fervor wears off-PEGWARM city.

[JON9000]

###: Jango Fett (Poncho?)

If he is super-articulated, he'll fly off the pegs. It's just a matter of Hasbro getting serious and giving us a reason to spend $8 for a character we already have other than a coin.

[Luuuuuuke]

I'm only going to deal with first two TAC waves so far.

R2 and Obi Wan were pretty obvious, so I wouldn't take any credit for predicting those would be pegwarmers I think Mace will eventually become a pegwarmer just because he has to, unless some loon out there is army building him.

In a surprise, I think the Galactic Marine will see a short period where he will become relatively easy to find, but he definitely won't be a pegwarmer.

From TAC 2, Luke and Han will become the real pegwarmers in the short term. But they will be followed by the Rebel Guard, who has the drab look of a pegwarmer written all over him. Biggs should become a pegwarmer, but I think he's the kind of figure that with some head-swapping with other figures could be attractive for customizers.

The Death Star Trooper will eventually go through a Death Star Gunner phase where it won't exactly be a pegwarmer, but if you want it, you'll find it pretty easily.

In general, I think only the Concept figures will be nearly impossible to find without waking up really early every morning. The others, you won't have to bust a testicle to find them.

[Jargo]

I would say given Hasbro's erratic packing methods and stores stock rotation policies, pegwarmers will be different in many areas same as always.

[JetsAndHeels]

If he is super-articulated, he'll fly off the pegs.

Yes, that is a figure (SA Jango Fett) I have been wanting for a while now. I hope this upcoming one is just that.

[JEDIpartner]

All of the Order 66 2-packs are clogging the shelves at the two Targets I regularly stop at in the morning.